Ipswich

Ipswich are making their move at the right moment, beating Birmingham 2-1 in Round 41 to push their direct promotion odds up to 43% — the strongest of the 3 sides locked on 72 points. Their goal difference of +29 puts them clear of Millwall (+9) and Middlesbrough (+21) on the tiebreaker, which grows more relevant with every passing round. With 7 games remaining compared to their rivals' 5, they have more room to absorb a slip-up, though the simulation still requires 5 wins to reach 75% confidence for automatic promotion. Next up is a trip to Portsmouth on Tuesday, April 14 — a side deep in the relegation battle where Ipswich will be clear favourites.