Eibar

Eibar drew 0-0 at Valladolid when they needed 3 points, and their playoff probability slipped from 35% to 29% — direct promotion is a 1% shot. They're only 3 points behind 6th-placed Castellón, but the simulation still requires 5 wins from 7 remaining at 75% confidence to break into the playoff spots — 1 more win than Castellón needs to hold them. Sunday's home game against Huesca on April 19 is the best possible fixture to restart: a relegation-threatened side is the most winnable draw available to them.