Chelsea

3 consecutive defeats — capped by a 0-3 home humiliation from Manchester City — have effectively ended Chelsea's Champions League ambitions, with the probability crashing from 12% to 3%. Europa League qualification at 8% is barely alive either: the models require 5 wins from the remaining 6 to reach even the 75% Europa threshold, a standard nowhere near their current form. Saturday's home clash against Manchester United on Apr 18 is essentially a must-win to stay mathematically relevant, but United arrive with far greater motivation and purpose.