Everton

Everton sit 8th on 47 points after a 2-2 draw at Brentford, with Europa League probability at 10% — but reaching that from 8th place requires winning 5 of their remaining 6 games, which implies performing at a top-4 level for the rest of the season. The gap to the teams above them and the schedule ahead tells you why the models are skeptical. Sunday's Merseyside derby at home against Liverpool on Apr 19 is the kind of fixture that can shift momentum wildly in either direction — a win would keep European hopes alive while also dealing a blow to a direct rival chasing a Champions League spot.