Liverpool

A 2-0 home win over Fulham was precisely the catalyst Liverpool needed, with their Champions League probability jumping from 20% to 46% — the biggest gain of any side in the top half this round. The caveat is that the models still require 5 wins from 6 remaining to hit the 75% threshold for a top-4 spot, which underscores how much ground they need to close on Aston Villa and Manchester United above them. The Merseyside derby away at Everton on Sunday, Apr 19 is next — a fixture that rarely follows form and carries momentum implications well beyond the 3 points.