Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest took a point from a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa at the City Ground, but it wasn't enough to stop their relegation probability creeping up from 8% to 11%. They sit just 3 points above Tottenham in 18th, and the models say 2 wins from 6 is needed to comfortably clear the drop zone at 75% confidence — a target that should be achievable, but only if they convert the winnable games. Sunday's home fixture against already-relegated Burnley on Apr 19 is exactly the kind of fixture they cannot afford to drop.