Napoli

Napoli drew 1-1 away at Parma in Round 32, a flat result that was rescued by events elsewhere — AC Milan's 0-3 home collapse effectively did Napoli's work for them, lifting their Champions League probability from 88% to 94%. Sitting 3 points clear of 3rd-place Milan with a better goal difference, the models say they need 3 wins from their remaining 6 games to feel comfortably in the top 4. A home match against Lazio on Saturday, April 18 is the first opportunity to convert on that need directly.