Brasileirão Série B · 2026 · # 01
Avai
Pts
8
MP
4
W
2
GD
+3
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.14%
Probability — Avai
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
10Wins/ 34
90% confidence
12Wins/ 34
99% confidence
12Wins/ 34
ProbFut AI Analysis
Avai earned a point from a tough trip to Recife — the 2-2 draw with Sport Recife left them level on points with 4 other sides at the top and nudged their promotion probability 1 point to 26%. The draw was broadly in line with what the Elo ratings predicted, and with no losses in 4 games (2W 2D), the overall picture remains healthy. Their 14% relegation risk is a reminder of how compressed and uncertain Série B is at this stage. They host Ponte Preta on Saturday, Apr 18 — a relatively favorable fixture — and with 23 wins needed in 34 remaining for a 75% promotion probability, maintaining points-per-game consistency matters far more than any individual result right now.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Avai's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Avai has a 14.4% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Avai need for Escape Relegation?
Avai needs 12 wins in 34 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.