Brasileirão Série B · 2026 · # 09
Botafogo SP
Pts
6
MP
4
W
2
GD
+3
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.18%
Probability — Botafogo SP
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
11Wins/ 34
90% confidence
12Wins/ 34
99% confidence
17Wins/ 34
ProbFut AI Analysis
Botafogo SP started the season with a 4-0 win but have lost their last 2, including a 1-0 defeat at Criciuma that nudged promotion down 2 points to 22% and pushed relegation risk up to 18%. The +3 goal difference is still among the best in the division, but it is entirely built on that opening performance — back-to-back losses in R3 and R4 are a more reliable signal of current form. They host Atletico Goianiense on Sunday, Apr 19, a side that has only just recorded their first win, which represents a chance to halt the slide. The model puts them at 23 wins needed in 34 remaining — firmly in the mid-table band.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Botafogo SP's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Botafogo SP has a 17.8% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Botafogo SP need for Escape Relegation?
Botafogo SP needs 12 wins in 34 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.