Brasileirão Série B · 2026 · # 02
Ceara
Pts
8
MP
4
W
2
GD
+3
Primary Objective
Promotion
Wins needed for direct promotion.26%
Probability — Ceara
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
22Wins/ 34
90% confidence
23Wins/ 34
99% confidence
25Wins/ 34
ProbFut AI Analysis
Ceara look like one of the early pace-setters — 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games, and a 1-0 victory over Nautico Recife moved their promotion probability 3 points to 26%, the joint-highest in the division. Their path to promotion (22 wins in 34 remaining at p75) is 1 fewer than most rivals on the same points tally, a small but meaningful edge that reflects the highest Elo in the division (1519). They travel to Londrina on Sunday, Apr 19, facing a side that has lost 2 in a row — a good opportunity to extend the early lead in the standings and keep the pressure on the sides around them.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Ceara's chances of achieving Promotion?
Ceara has a 26.3% probability of achieving Promotion, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Ceara need for Promotion?
Ceara needs 23 wins in 34 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.