Juventude

Juventude were in an uncomfortable position — 2 losses in their first 3 games — and the 2-0 win over Goias in Round 4 came at the right moment. Promotion probability ticked up 2 points to 17%, relegation fell 3 to 22%, and the result steadied the ship without fully resolving the early concerns. The model still rates them slightly below the mid-table average, needing 24 wins in 34 remaining (p75) — 1 more than most sides around them — which reflects a lower Elo (1493). They travel to CRB on Saturday, Apr 18, where the hosts are having an even harder start (2 pts, 0 wins), giving Juventude a real chance to build on Round 4's result.