Brasileirão Série B · 2026 · # 19
Ponte Preta
Pts
1
MP
4
W
0
GD
-3
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.29%
Probability — Ponte Preta
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
13Wins/ 34
90% confidence
13Wins/ 34
99% confidence
17Wins/ 34
ProbFut AI Analysis
Ponte Preta are in a difficult early hole: 3 losses in 4 games, just 1 point, and a 29% relegation probability after the 1-0 defeat to Vila Nova. The number that stands out most starkly is their p90 promotion figure — 34 wins needed in 34 remaining — which is the maximum possible and signals that in 90% of simulations, promotion is already out of reach regardless of results going forward. That reflects their Elo (1479, 2nd-lowest in the division) and their current form. They travel to face Avai on Saturday, Apr 18 — the table leaders — and earning something from that match would at least halt the losing run. Stopping the slide is the immediate and only realistic priority.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Ponte Preta's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Ponte Preta has a 29.1% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Ponte Preta need for Escape Relegation?
Ponte Preta needs 13 wins in 34 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.