Brasileirão Série B · 2026 · # 04
Vila Nova
Pts
8
MP
4
W
2
GD
+2
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.15%
Probability — Vila Nova
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
10Wins/ 34
90% confidence
12Wins/ 34
99% confidence
12Wins/ 34
ProbFut AI Analysis
Vila Nova had the biggest positive probability swing of Round 4 — a 1-0 win at Ponte Preta drove promotion odds up 5 points to 26% and brought relegation risk down to 15%. Two wins and 2 draws from 4 games, with every point earned through competitive, controlled performances, puts them firmly in the promotion conversation. They host Operario-PR on Saturday, Apr 18 — a top-half derby between 2 unbeaten sides — which will start to separate the genuine contenders from the early-season noise. With 23 wins needed in 34 remaining at p75, Vila Nova are on pace if they can sustain the current rhythm.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Vila Nova's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Vila Nova has a 15.1% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Vila Nova need for Escape Relegation?
Vila Nova needs 12 wins in 34 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.