Southampton

Southampton are the other side yet to play this round — they travel to Wrexham on Tuesday, April 7 in a direct playoff clash that will meaningfully shift the top-8 standings. Coming in on strong form — 4 wins in their last 5 games including a victory at Coventry in Round 38 — they sit 8th on 63 points with a 65% playoff probability, down 4% as other results came in while they waited. The simulation requires 5 wins from their remaining 7 games to reach both the 75% and 90% confidence thresholds, and Tuesday's trip to Wrexham is exactly the kind of head-to-head that determines playoff fate in the final weeks.