Almeria

Almeria had a brutal Round 35 — a 5-1 defeat at Racing Santander saw their direct promotion probability fall from 47% to 25%, with the gap to the top now at 4 points and only 7 games left. To go up automatically at 75% confidence, they need 5 wins from those 7 remaining matches, a very demanding return that the simulations consider unlikely. As a result, the promotion playoff route has become their primary realistic objective at 61%, requiring just 3 wins at the same confidence level — well within reach if they can stabilise. A home match against Malaga on Sunday (Apr 19) is the immediate test: winning keeps the slim automatic promotion hope breathing and solidifies their grip on the playoff places.