Monaco

Monaco were taken apart 4-1 by Paris FC this round, and the damage was severe — their Champions League probability dropped from 47% to 12%. Conference League is now the realistic ceiling at 30%, where they need 3 wins from 5 remaining games at 75% confidence. They host Auxerre on Sunday (Apr 19) in a match they will be expected to win, and the response here matters: another poor performance would push them further toward the fringe of European qualification altogether.