Arsenal

A shock 1-2 home defeat to Bournemouth has sliced Arsenal's title probability from 94% to 69% — the sharpest single-round swing in the entire division. The loss means they now need 5 wins from their remaining 6 to stay on the 75% confidence path to the title, a punishing target that leaves almost no margin for error in a run-in that includes the toughest fixture possible: an away trip to Manchester City on Sunday, Apr 19. That match has gone from a nice-to-have to a near must-win, with City now 31% to take the title and holding a game in hand.