Cremonese

Cremonese lost 1-0 at Cagliari in Round 32 — their 4th defeat in the last 5 matches — and remain in 18th place on 27 points with a 67% probability of relegation. The numbers are stark: they need 3 wins from 6 to reach the 75th-percentile safety threshold, and even winning all 6 remaining games would only bring them to 90% certainty of survival, because Lecce directly above them are also battling and the margins are razor-thin. Sunday's home match against Torino on April 19 is as close to a must-win as the situation allows.