Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · # 04
Fluminense
Pts
20
MP
11
W
6
GD
+5
Primary Objective
Champion
Wins needed to finish in 1st place.8%
Probability — Fluminense
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
22Wins/ 27
90% confidence
27Wins/ 27
99% confidence
27Wins/ 27
ProbFut AI Analysis
Fluminense lost 1-2 at home to Flamengo in the Fla-Flu derby, and the damage was significant: their Libertadores direct probability dropped 11 points to 43% — the biggest single-round fall in the top half of the table. Now 4th on 20 points with the same record as São Paulo, they're increasingly at risk of sliding into Sulamericana territory (30% and rising). To lock down a top-4 spot at 75% confidence they need 16 wins from 27 remaining; they face Santos away on Sunday.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Fluminense's chances of achieving Champion?
Fluminense has a 7.7% probability of achieving Champion, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Fluminense need for Champion?
Fluminense needs 27 wins in 27 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.