Criciuma

Criciuma kept pace with the pack by beating Botafogo SP 1-0, cutting their relegation risk 2 points to 16% and holding steady at 23% for promotion. The model sees them as part of a large cluster of roughly equivalent mid-table sides — their Elo (1507) is identical to Goias and Sport Recife, which explains why the simulations are so tightly grouped in this part of the table. They travel to Fortaleza EC on Sunday, Apr 19 — an away test against a side that has now won back-to-back — and a result there would be a genuine signal of promotion credentials. The standard 23-win target in 34 remaining applies here.