Novorizontino

Novorizontino produced the most significant turnaround of Round 4 — a 3-0 thrashing of America Mineiro flipped their probability picture completely: promotion up 4 points to 20%, relegation down 5 to 20%. A week ago the relegation risk sat at 24% against just 16% for promotion; now both numbers are identical, reflecting the genuine two-way uncertainty in mid-table Série B. They host Athletic Club on Sunday, Apr 19 — a top-half clash — which will test whether Round 4 was a genuine turning point or a flattering result against a struggling side. 23 wins in 34 remaining is the p75 promotion target; the trajectory is at least now pointing the right way.