São Bernardo

São Bernardo followed a promising win in R3 with a 1-0 loss to Fortaleza EC, and the model moved sharply: promotion down 4 points to 17%, relegation up 4 to 22%. The inconsistency — alternating results round by round — is the defining pattern, and the simulation has started to price in greater tail risk for their profile. The clearest signal is the p90 relegation safety figure: 17 wins in 34 remaining, notably higher than the 12 required by most mid-table sides, indicating the model sees a wider downside risk in their Elo profile. Away at Nautico Recife on Saturday, Apr 18, a win would steady the ship in a match that looks genuinely open between 2 inconsistent sides.