Sport Recife

Sport Recife are an interesting case: unbeaten through 4 rounds (1W 3D) with 6 points, yet their promotion probability slipped 2 points to 21% after the 2-2 draw with Avai. The pattern is consistent — they are accumulating points but not the wins the model needs to project promotion, since wins drive long-run simulation outcomes more than draws. At 23 wins needed in 34 remaining (p75), converting some of those draws into 3-point hauls is the central challenge. Away at America Mineiro on Saturday, Apr 18 — a side yet to win all season — is as good an opportunity as any to break that habit.