Oxford United

Oxford United drew 2-2 away at Portsmouth in Round 41, but their relegation probability ticked up to 84% despite earning a point — in their situation, draws move the needle in the wrong direction. The simulation now requires 4 wins from their remaining 5 games to have a meaningful chance of staying up, a monumental ask for a side that has managed just 9 wins all season. They host Watford on Saturday, April 11 — a side with nothing at stake — and turning over a comfortable mid-table visitor is the bare minimum they need to keep any hope alive.