ProbFut

Football probability analysis powered by Elo ratings, Poisson distribution & Monte Carlo simulation.

© 2026 ProbFut

Leagues

Brasileirão Série A Bundesliga LaLiga Ligue 1 Premier League Serie A

Project

Methodology About

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Dashboard Standings Magic Numbers Simulator

Magic Numbers

Live projections

The Kinetic
Ledger.

Complete magic-number analysis for every team. Mathematical certainty vs. atmospheric variance.

Barcelona

99%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Real Madrid

99%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Villarreal

99%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Atletico Madrid

99%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Real Betis

90%Europa League

Wins for Europa League

Getafe

29%Europa League

Wins for Europa League

Celta Vigo

36%Europa League

Wins for Europa League

Real Sociedad

28%Europa League

Wins for Europa League

Osasuna

14%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Athletic Club

5%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Valencia

3%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Rayo Vallecano

8%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Espanyol

1%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Elche

8%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Girona

2%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Alaves

19%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Mallorca

25%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Sevilla

66%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Levante

56%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Oviedo

99%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation