What are AS Roma's chances of achieving Conference League?

AS Roma has a 14.2% probability of achieving Conference League, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.

How many wins does AS Roma need for Conference League?

AS Roma needs 3 wins in 7 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.

Serie A

Season 2025

AS Roma

6th place·54 points·Current Elo: 1549

Conference League

14%

AS Roma has a 14% chance of qualifying for the Conference League and needs 1 win in 7 remaining matches.

ProbFut AI Analysis

The 5-2 loss to Inter was a significant blow for AS Roma, causing their champions_league probability to slide to 20%. They now rely on a perfect or near-perfect finish, needing 7 wins from their last 7 matches to reach the p90 threshold for the top four. Their next opportunity to stabilize is against Pisa on Friday, Apr 10, where a win is essential to defend their 75% probability for the europa_league.

20% champions_league probability

Probability trend

Magic Numbers

Objective	75%	90%	99%
Conference League	1/7	3/7	3/7

Points distribution

Expected points: 69

6367697173

P5P25P50P75P95

...