Lecce

A 2-0 defeat at Bologna in Round 32 extended Lecce's grim run to 4 losses in their last 5 matches, and their relegation probability has risen to 33% — up from 29% a week ago. Level on points with 18th-place Cremonese but separated only by a better goal difference, the models say they need 2 wins from their remaining 6 games to feel safe at the 75th-percentile threshold. Monday's home match against Fiorentina on April 20 is the first chance to break that run — Fiorentina have nothing to fight for and may offer a softer test.