Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · # 05
Bahia
Pts
20
MP
10
W
6
GD
+5
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.2%
Probability — Bahia
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
8Wins/ 28
90% confidence
8Wins/ 28
99% confidence
10Wins/ 28
ProbFut AI Analysis
Bahia kept pace with the top cluster by winning 2-1 away at Mirassol, their Libertadores direct probability surging from 34% to 48% — the second-biggest round-by-round gain of any team this week. They sit 5th on 20 points with a game in hand over most rivals (28 remaining), and to secure a direct Libertadores spot at 75% confidence they need 16 wins from those 28 games. Their postponed Round 4 fixture at home against Chapecoense-sc comes next on Wednesday — a favorable opportunity on paper.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Bahia's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Bahia has a 1.6% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Bahia need for Escape Relegation?
Bahia needs 8 wins in 28 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.