Bahia

Bahia kept pace with the top cluster by winning 2-1 away at Mirassol, their Libertadores direct probability surging from 34% to 48% — the second-biggest round-by-round gain of any team this week. They sit 5th on 20 points with a game in hand over most rivals (28 remaining), and to secure a direct Libertadores spot at 75% confidence they need 16 wins from those 28 games. Their postponed Round 4 fixture at home against Chapecoense-sc comes next on Wednesday — a favorable opportunity on paper.