Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG lost 1-0 away at Santos this round, a result that trimmed their Libertadores direct probability from 22% to 16% and pushed their relegation risk up 3 points to 10%. At 8th on 14 points with a mixed record of 4W 2D 5L, the gap between their European ambitions and their form is growing — to crack the top 4 at 75% confidence they'd need 19 wins from 27 remaining, a tall order. They travel to Coritiba on Sunday in a mid-table battle where both sides need to start turning draws and losses into wins.