Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · # 11
Botafogo
Pts
13
MP
10
W
4
GD
-3
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.17%
Probability — Botafogo
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
10Wins/ 28
90% confidence
10Wins/ 28
99% confidence
12Wins/ 28
ProbFut AI Analysis
Botafogo were held 2-2 at home by Coritiba this round, extending a difficult run to just 1 win in their last 4 matches. At 11th on 13 points, their 17% relegation probability is becoming the more pressing concern compared to the 14% Libertadores direct chance — to stay safe at 75% confidence they need 10 wins from 28 remaining. They host Vitoria on Wednesday in their postponed Round 4 fixture, against a side now riding high after beating São Paulo.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Botafogo's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Botafogo has a 17.1% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Botafogo need for Escape Relegation?
Botafogo needs 10 wins in 28 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.