Santos

Santos picked up a valuable 1-0 home win over Atletico-MG this round, trimming their relegation risk from 26% to 22% — still a concern for a side sitting 15th on 13 points with a -2 goal difference. The 6% Libertadores probability is marginal; the real focus is accumulating enough wins (10 from 27 remaining at 75% confidence) to build a meaningful buffer above the drop. They host Fluminense on Sunday in a match where both sides need a positive result.