Coritiba

Coritiba drew 2-2 at home with Botafogo — their 4th draw in 5 rounds — and the pattern of dropped points is gradually shifting the numbers against them. Their relegation probability has edged to 12% while their Libertadores ambitions (11%) have faded, and the Sulamericana zone at 42% is now their most likely European outcome. To stay clear of the drop at 75% confidence they need 9 wins from 27 remaining — a manageable target, but one that requires converting more of those draws into wins. They host Atletico-MG on Sunday.