Fortaleza EC

Fortaleza EC have strung together back-to-back wins — including a 1-0 away victory at São Bernardo in Round 4 — to shake off the horror of a 0-4 opening-day loss. Promotion probability jumped 3 points to 22% while relegation risk fell sharply by 4 to 18%, reflecting the improved trajectory. The model still shows a slightly elevated relegation reading compared to the top cluster, a function of their lower Elo (1501) and the early heavy defeat still weighing on the simulation. They host Criciuma on Sunday, Apr 19 — a mid-table meeting between 2 sides in decent form — where another win would push them firmly into the promotion picture.