Londrina

Londrina have lost 2 in a row — the latest a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Goianiense — and the probability picture is drifting in the wrong direction: promotion down 2 points to 18%, relegation up to 22%. Their bright opening (a 3-1 win in R1) looks increasingly like an outlier, and at 24 wins needed in 34 remaining (p75) — 1 more than most rivals — the model signals they are slightly below average in quality. They host Ceara on Sunday, Apr 19, one of the tougher matchups of Round 5, and arresting the slide against a form side will require a sharp improvement in performance.