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Magic Numbers
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The Kinetic
Ledger.
Complete magic-number analysis for every team. Mathematical certainty vs. atmospheric variance.
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Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
# 01 · 63 pts
86%
Champion
1st
86%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
4
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
4
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Lens
# 02 · 62 pts
14%
Champion
1st
14%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Lille
# 03 · 54 pts
65%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
65%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Lyon
# 04 · 54 pts
59%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
59%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Rennes
# 05 · 53 pts
33%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
33%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Marseille
# 06 · 52 pts
34%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
34%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Monaco
# 07 · 50 pts
25%
Conference League
1st
✕
UCL
9%
REL
0%
Wins for Conference League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Strasbourg
# 08 · 43 pts
1%
Conference League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Conference League
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Lorient
# 09 · 41 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Paris FC
# 10 · 38 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Toulouse
# 11 · 37 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Stade Brestois 29
# 12 · 37 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Angers
# 13 · 34 pts
1%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
0
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
0
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
0
W
/ 4G
Le Havre
# 14 · 30 pts
7%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
1%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
1
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
1
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
2
W
/ 4G
Nice
# 15 · 29 pts
22%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
1%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
1
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
2
W
/ 4G
Auxerre
# 16 · 25 pts
69%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
3%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Nantes
# 17 · 20 pts
3%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
97%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
5
W
/ 5G
90% confidence
5
W
/ 5G
99% confidence
—
Metz
# 18 · 15 pts
99%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
✓
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
