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Magic Numbers
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The Kinetic
Ledger.
Complete magic-number analysis for every team. Mathematical certainty vs. atmospheric variance.
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Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
# 01 · 69 pts
98%
Champion
1st
98%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
2
W
/ 4G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 4G
99% confidence
4
W
/ 4G
Lens
# 02 · 63 pts
2%
Champion
1st
2%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Lille
# 03 · 57 pts
81%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
81%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
Lyon
# 04 · 57 pts
69%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
69%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
Rennes
# 05 · 56 pts
37%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
37%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
Marseille
# 06 · 53 pts
43%
Conference League
1st
✕
UCL
12%
REL
0%
Wins for Conference League
75% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
Monaco
# 07 · 51 pts
19%
Conference League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Conference League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
Strasbourg
# 08 · 46 pts
4%
Conference League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Conference League
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Lorient
# 09 · 41 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Toulouse
# 10 · 38 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Stade Brestois 29
# 11 · 38 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Paris FC
# 12 · 38 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Angers
# 13 · 34 pts
0%
Champion
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Le Havre
# 14 · 31 pts
6%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
0
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
1
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
1
W
/ 3G
Nice
# 15 · 30 pts
17%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
0%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
1
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
1
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
Auxerre
# 16 · 25 pts
76%
Escape the Playoffs
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
1%
Wins for Escape the Playoffs
75% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 3G
Nantes
# 17 · 20 pts
99%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
✓
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Metz
# 18 · 16 pts
99%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
✓
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
