ProbFut

Football probability analysis powered by Elo ratings, Poisson distribution & Monte Carlo simulation.

© 2026 ProbFut

Leagues

Brasileirão Série A Bundesliga LaLiga Ligue 1 Premier League Serie A

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Methodology About

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Dashboard Standings Magic Numbers Simulator

Magic Numbers

Live projections

The Kinetic
Ledger.

Complete magic-number analysis for every team. Mathematical certainty vs. atmospheric variance.

Paris Saint Germain

99%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Lens

99%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Lyon

98%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Lille

77%Champions League

Wins for Champions League

Rennes

49%Europa League

Wins for Europa League

Monaco

47%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Marseille

25%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Strasbourg

2%Conference League

Wins for Conference League

Lorient

Wins for Champion

Toulouse

Wins for Champion

Paris FC

Wins for Champion

Stade Brestois 29

Wins for Champion

Angers

Wins for Champion

Le Havre

7%Escape the Playoffs

Wins for Escape the Playoffs

Nice

37%Escape the Playoffs

Wins for Escape the Playoffs

Auxerre

56%Escape the Playoffs

Wins for Escape the Playoffs

Nantes

99%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation

Metz

99%Escape Relegation

Wins for Escape Relegation