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The Kinetic
Ledger.
Complete magic-number analysis for every team. Mathematical certainty vs. atmospheric variance.
Arsenal
# 01 · 50 pts
56%
Champion
1st
56%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
15
W
/ 15G
Manchester City
# 02 · 46 pts
31%
Champion
1st
31%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
15
W
/ 15G
Aston Villa
# 03 · 46 pts
97%
Champions League
1st
13%
UCL
97%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
Manchester United
# 04 · 38 pts
52%
Champions League
1st
1%
UCL
52%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
10
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Chelsea
# 05 · 37 pts
35%
Champions League
1st
0%
UCL
35%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
15
W
/ 15G
Liverpool
# 06 · 36 pts
12%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
7%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
10
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
10
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
Fulham
# 07 · 34 pts
4%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
10
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Brentford
# 08 · 33 pts
6%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Newcastle
# 09 · 33 pts
7%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
3%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Everton
# 10 · 33 pts
4%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
1%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
10
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Sunderland
# 11 · 33 pts
3%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
1%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Brighton
# 12 · 30 pts
3%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
1%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
12
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
12
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Bournemouth
# 13 · 30 pts
3%
Europa League
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
1%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
12
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
12
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
13
W
/ 15G
Tottenham
# 14 · 28 pts
7%
Escape Relegation
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
7%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
4
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
4
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
5
W
/ 15G
Crystal Palace
# 15 · 28 pts
3%
Escape Relegation
1st
0%
UCL
0%
REL
3%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
4
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
5
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
Leeds
# 16 · 26 pts
2%
Escape Relegation
1st
0%
UCL
1%
REL
2%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
5
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
5
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
Nottingham Forest
# 17 · 25 pts
29%
Escape Relegation
1st
0%
UCL
0%
REL
29%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
5
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
West Ham
# 18 · 20 pts
62%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
0%
REL
62%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
7
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
15
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
15
W
/ 15G
Burnley
# 19 · 15 pts
96%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
0%
REL
96%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
9
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
Wolves
# 20 · 8 pts
99%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
✓
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
11
W
/ 15G
90% confidence
15
W
/ 15G
99% confidence
15
W
/ 15G