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The Kinetic
Ledger.
Complete magic-number analysis for every team. Mathematical certainty vs. atmospheric variance.
Arsenal
# 01 · 70 pts
69%
Champion
1st
69%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Manchester City
# 02 · 64 pts
31%
Champion
1st
31%
UCL
✓
REL
0%
Wins for Champion
75% confidence
7
W
/ 7G
90% confidence
7
W
/ 7G
99% confidence
7
W
/ 7G
Aston Villa
# 03 · 55 pts
68%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
68%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Manchester United
# 04 · 55 pts
74%
Champions League
1st
1%
UCL
74%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Liverpool
# 05 · 52 pts
46%
Champions League
1st
✕
UCL
46%
REL
0%
Wins for Champions League
75% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Chelsea
# 06 · 48 pts
8%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
3%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Brentford
# 07 · 47 pts
5%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
2%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Everton
# 08 · 47 pts
10%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
4%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
5
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Brighton
# 09 · 46 pts
6%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
2%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
—
Sunderland
# 10 · 46 pts
1%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
—
Bournemouth
# 11 · 45 pts
1%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Fulham
# 12 · 44 pts
1%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
0%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Newcastle
# 13 · 42 pts
1%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
1%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Crystal Palace
# 14 · 42 pts
1%
Europa League
1st
✕
UCL
1%
REL
1%
Wins for Europa League
75% confidence
7
W
/ 7G
90% confidence
7
W
/ 7G
99% confidence
—
Leeds
# 15 · 36 pts
1%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
1%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
1
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
Nottingham Forest
# 16 · 33 pts
11%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
11%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
2
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
West Ham
# 17 · 32 pts
20%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
20%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
2
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
2
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
Tottenham
# 18 · 30 pts
69%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
69%
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
3
W
/ 6G
90% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
99% confidence
6
W
/ 6G
Burnley
# 19 · 20 pts
99%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
✓
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—
Wolves
# 20 · 17 pts
99%
Escape Relegation
1st
✕
UCL
✕
REL
✓
Wins for Escape Relegation
75% confidence
—
90% confidence
—
99% confidence
—