Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · # 07
Coritiba
Pts
16
MP
11
W
4
GD
+1
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.12%
Probability — Coritiba
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
9Wins/ 27
90% confidence
9Wins/ 27
99% confidence
11Wins/ 27
ProbFut AI Analysis
Coritiba drew 2-2 at home with Botafogo — their 4th draw in 5 rounds — and the pattern of dropped points is gradually shifting the numbers against them. Their relegation probability has edged to 12% while their Libertadores ambitions (11%) have faded, and the Sulamericana zone at 42% is now their most likely European outcome. To stay clear of the drop at 75% confidence they need 9 wins from 27 remaining — a manageable target, but one that requires converting more of those draws into wins. They host Atletico-MG on Sunday.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Coritiba's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Coritiba has a 12.0% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Coritiba need for Escape Relegation?
Coritiba needs 9 wins in 27 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.