Brasileirão Série A · 2026 · # 02
Flamengo
Pts
20
MP
10
W
6
GD
+8
Primary Objective
Escape Relegation
Wins needed to escape direct relegation.2%
Probability — Flamengo
Wins required by confidence level
75% confidence
8Wins/ 28
90% confidence
8Wins/ 28
99% confidence
10Wins/ 28
ProbFut AI Analysis
Flamengo produced their best probability result of the season, winning 2-1 away at Fluminense in the Fla-Flu derby to push their Libertadores direct chance from 37% to 50% — the single largest jump among any team this round. Their title probability also rose to 14%, though the more realistic prize is a top-4 finish: at 75% confidence they need 16 wins from their 28 remaining games. They host Mirassol next in their postponed Round 4 fixture on Wednesday, a favorable opportunity to keep the momentum going.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Flamengo's chances of achieving Escape Relegation?
Flamengo has a 2.0% probability of achieving Escape Relegation, based on Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 iterations.
How many wins does Flamengo need for Escape Relegation?
Flamengo needs 8 wins in 28 remaining matches to achieve the objective with 90% confidence.