Vitoria

Vitoria produced the round's biggest probability swing, beating São Paulo 2-0 at home to slash their relegation risk from 33% to 7% — a 26-point drop in a single match, the largest improvement of any team this round. Now 10th on 14 points with a 49% Sulamericana probability, they've transformed from a survival concern into a genuine mid-table contender for European spots. To secure a Sulamericana finish at 75% confidence they need 12 wins from 28 remaining; their next test comes away at Botafogo in their postponed Round 4 fixture on Wednesday.